I've just read quite an eye opening article regarding a forecast on the housing crisis and I would love some feedback about it from our industry professionals - especially any arguments (if any) to contradict its dismal outlook at least here in Florida.
According to a report by T2 Partners - which includes an impressive series of charts on the housing crisis - there is a great deal more pain to come. The report is 69 pages long and as stated, is loaded with informational charts covering the full spectrum of all that is aggravating the current housing crisis.
The original report is accessible here:
http://moremortgagemeltdown.com/download/pdf/T2_Partners_presentation_on_the_mortgage_crisis.pdf
Available here is an abbreviated version of some of the included information along with commentary by Mike Shedlock (Mike Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management):
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/channels/community/06292009-Mortgage-Meltdown.aspx
In addition to direct feedback regarding the information in this report, I would appreciate some feedback regarding the monthly FAR reports regarding sales volume. These reports clearly illustrate a steady increase of activity beginning 3rd quarter 2008 in all MSA's within Florida. One would see this as welcome news but how accurate are these numbers?
Do these reports (for single family homes) include foreclosures and short sales? If so, does anyone have current percentages or monthly figures as to glean more accurate information from these FAR reports?
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
Friday, August 28, 2009
Continued good news for the housing market?
Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mae vice president and chief economist said in a press release from Freddie Mac, "Long-term mortgage rates were barely changed this week, remaining historically low, which is helping to sustain a high level of affordability in the home-purchase market. Low rates contributed to existing home sales rising for the fourth consecutive month to an annual pace of 5.24 million in July, the most since August 2007, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
"Similarly, new home sales rose for the fourth month in a row to 0.4 million, the strongest pace since September 2008, the Commerce Department reported. The sales gain helped to reduce the number of new unsold houses on the market to the lowest amount since March 1993. In addition, house prices in June rose nationally for the second consecutive month, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency's purchase-only house price index."
(courtesy of Mortgage News Daily)
It seems to me that we had possibly hit the bottom of this housing slump in January 2009 - but are current housing reports giving us the full picture? Even allowing for the usual springtime-summertime activity increases, news reports have shown that overall activity is increasing, mortgage rates remain low, investors are returning to the market, and inventory is going down.
There has been plenty of good and welcome news but our industry's real problem right now is two fold:
(1) Unemployment, Unemployment, Unemployment! With rates up to 10% (a real figure of closer to 16%), consumer sentiment will remain weak.
(2) Personal savings at historical lows (although they are beginning to climb) together with very tight lending standards. With consumers still recovering from spending both their equity and savings on new cars and big screen TV's, no one is left with enough cash for the down payments now required for qualification - regardless of their credit histories.
Then there is what will happen to the market when mortgage rates begin to climb and the first time home buyer tax credit expires?
But it does seem that we are at least at the beginning of a rebound. Hang in there everybody. Remain diligent, monitor your expenses and ride this slump out. Before you know it we will all be seeing a return to normalized activity... hopefully along with mature and stable lending policies structured toward long term health of the housing markets.
"Similarly, new home sales rose for the fourth month in a row to 0.4 million, the strongest pace since September 2008, the Commerce Department reported. The sales gain helped to reduce the number of new unsold houses on the market to the lowest amount since March 1993. In addition, house prices in June rose nationally for the second consecutive month, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency's purchase-only house price index."
(courtesy of Mortgage News Daily)
It seems to me that we had possibly hit the bottom of this housing slump in January 2009 - but are current housing reports giving us the full picture? Even allowing for the usual springtime-summertime activity increases, news reports have shown that overall activity is increasing, mortgage rates remain low, investors are returning to the market, and inventory is going down.
There has been plenty of good and welcome news but our industry's real problem right now is two fold:
(1) Unemployment, Unemployment, Unemployment! With rates up to 10% (a real figure of closer to 16%), consumer sentiment will remain weak.
(2) Personal savings at historical lows (although they are beginning to climb) together with very tight lending standards. With consumers still recovering from spending both their equity and savings on new cars and big screen TV's, no one is left with enough cash for the down payments now required for qualification - regardless of their credit histories.
Then there is what will happen to the market when mortgage rates begin to climb and the first time home buyer tax credit expires?
But it does seem that we are at least at the beginning of a rebound. Hang in there everybody. Remain diligent, monitor your expenses and ride this slump out. Before you know it we will all be seeing a return to normalized activity... hopefully along with mature and stable lending policies structured toward long term health of the housing markets.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Feedback & Suggestions
Please use this post to offer any feedback or suggestions... either as they pertain to the service and products that Landtech Surveying has to offer, or to the content you would care to discuss on this blog.
I look forward to hearing from you!
I look forward to hearing from you!
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Long term benefits of working with an ethical company.
For twenty five years I have maintained an enormous effort toward delivering the very best customer service I can. To this day I attribute much of my firms success to this endeavor.
The last few years however, I have come to realize that this is certainly not the sole reason for this success.
Although not a direct conscious principle, managing and directing a team of individuals in an uncompromisingly ethical manner has guided all my decisions and has surely been pivotal in my firms longevity. It is simply who I am. I didn't require any coursework or seminars to know that this was the only way in which to run a business. I am convinced that the reason I am still conducting business - albeit at a slower pace - is due to quality customers wishing to deal with quality vendors... in this case, an ethical land surveyor who refuses to cut corners or circumvent legal statutes.
Surely I could have resorted to gifts, bribes, unstructured "profit-sharing", or offered the ubiquitous "washout" and amassed an amazingly dense list of customers.
But where would all those customers be now? So many of them either going out of business or even being indicted for fraudulent operations. And if my business were reliant upon theirs... where would I now find myself? Most likely meandering the long lines of the local unemployment office along with 10 % of our population.
Instead, I enjoy a core group of like-minded customers committed to delivering ethically sound quality services and sure, we are battling a slump right now but we will all still be here to enjoy a return to normal housing activity... and profit fairly once more.
Of course I would enjoy working with more of you. You may visit http://www.landtechsurvey.com/ for full details of what we offer.
I find myself quite proud of what I have accomplished and what I have shared with both my customers and my employees. The very best result from all this is the slight welling up of my eyes and the slight lump in my throat when my 14 year old son looks at me, speaks of his respect for me, and tells me he wants to grow up "just like you dad".
The last few years however, I have come to realize that this is certainly not the sole reason for this success.
Although not a direct conscious principle, managing and directing a team of individuals in an uncompromisingly ethical manner has guided all my decisions and has surely been pivotal in my firms longevity. It is simply who I am. I didn't require any coursework or seminars to know that this was the only way in which to run a business. I am convinced that the reason I am still conducting business - albeit at a slower pace - is due to quality customers wishing to deal with quality vendors... in this case, an ethical land surveyor who refuses to cut corners or circumvent legal statutes.
Surely I could have resorted to gifts, bribes, unstructured "profit-sharing", or offered the ubiquitous "washout" and amassed an amazingly dense list of customers.
But where would all those customers be now? So many of them either going out of business or even being indicted for fraudulent operations. And if my business were reliant upon theirs... where would I now find myself? Most likely meandering the long lines of the local unemployment office along with 10 % of our population.
Instead, I enjoy a core group of like-minded customers committed to delivering ethically sound quality services and sure, we are battling a slump right now but we will all still be here to enjoy a return to normal housing activity... and profit fairly once more.
Of course I would enjoy working with more of you. You may visit http://www.landtechsurvey.com/ for full details of what we offer.
I find myself quite proud of what I have accomplished and what I have shared with both my customers and my employees. The very best result from all this is the slight welling up of my eyes and the slight lump in my throat when my 14 year old son looks at me, speaks of his respect for me, and tells me he wants to grow up "just like you dad".
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